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The Upcoming Leonid Meteoroid Storm and its Effect on Satellites Testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics Hearing on "Asteroids: Perils and Opportunities" May 21, 1998 William H. Ailor, Ph.D., Director, Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies David K. Lynch, Ph.D., Research Scientist, Space and Environment Technology Center Edward Tagliaferri, Ph.D., Physicist, Space-Based Infrared Systems Division Summary: On February 28, 1998, comet Tempel-Tuttle was at its closest point to the Sun and heat from the Sun boiled off small bits of dust and sand. While the comet itself has now moved away from the Sun and poses no threat to Earth, a cloud of cometary debris from this and previous passages remains. In November of each year, the Earth passes through the debris cloud from comet Tempel-Tuttle. This event generally creates a meteor shower as the dust enters the Earth's atmosphere and burns up. Since the debris appears to be coming from the direction of the constellation Leo, the meteor shower is called the "Leonid shower." In 1998 and 1999, the Earth is passing very close to the comet's orbital path at a time when the comet has recently passed by. As a result, the Earth, and our orbiting satellites, are likely to experience a meteoroid "storm" as we pass through the cloud of debris following closely behind the comet. Rather than the 10 to 15 meteors per hour characteristic of a normal year, scientists predict we'll see 200 to 5,000 meteors per hour, and possibly more. This meteoroid storm will be the largest such threat ever experienced by our critical orbiting satellite constellations. Furthermore, because of the very high speed of the particles -- they will be moving at speeds of over 70 km/sec (over 155,000 miles/hour) -- the storm poses an even greater and somewhat unknown threat. Fortunately, most of the particles in the comet's trail are very small--smaller than the diameter of a human hair--and won't survive passage through the Earth's atmosphere. Our satellites however, are not protected by the atmosphere, so they will be "sand blasted" by very small particles traveling more than 100 times faster than a bullet. At these speeds, even a tiny particle can cause damage or electrical problems. While major holes and physical damage to solar panels and structures are very unlikely, impacts of small particles will create an electrically charged plasma which can induce electrical shorts and failures in sensitive electronic components. The latest information on the coming Leonid meteoroid storm was presented at the "Leonid Meteoroid Storm and Satellite Threat Conference" sponsored by The Aerospace Corporation and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) in Manhattan Beach, California, on April 27 and 28 of this year. The meeting was attended by satellite owners and operators from all over the world. The primary recommendations from the conference were that, while it is very unlikely that the storm will have any major effect on satellites, the "A-team" of controllers should be on duty during the time of the storm, and operators should check the state of health of their satellites frequently, looking primarily for electrical anomalies and glitches. It was also recommended that, if possible, satellites be oriented so that sensitive components are shielded from the oncoming stream of particles, and that recovery plans be in place should there be a spacecraft system failure during the storm. The Aerospace Corporation collected information on spacecraft anomalies experienced during the 1997 Leonid shower and will be collecting similar information for the 1998 and 1999 Leonid storms. This database currently contains information on all Department of Defense satellites and many non-defense satellites. We are soliciting inputs from satellite owners and operators worldwide. This information will help us plan for the 1999 Leonid and future meteoroid storms. It may also help us to understand whether additional safeguards against the meteoroid impact threat should be included in future spacecraft designs. The last major meteoroid storm occurred in the mid 1960s when we had few satellites. This year, we have over 500 operational satellites performing functions critical to our nation and the world. The 1998 Leonid meteoroid storm should have minimal effect on most satellites, but owners and operators should be aware of the possibilities and alert during the storm. Data we gather this year will help us be ready for the 1999 storm and future events of this type. Cyber City Cafe Home | 1999 predictions | Prophecies