Grayson County College astronomy professor Dan Rajcic said he doesn't
believe the event will be quite as spectacular as some scientists are predicting.
He also said that those who want to catch whatever show Leonid will produce
should get outside an hour to an hour and a half before sunrise to take
best advantage of the darkness.
Meteor showers happen when the earth passes through the path of a comet.
In the case of the Leonid shower, the earth goes where the comet Tempel-Tuttle
ventured. Tempel-Tuttle is on a 33.2-year orbital path. We cross the path
each Nov. 17. In that path are dust particles that range in size from sand
grains to pebbles that flare and burn up when colliding with the earth's
atmosphere. The path is called a meteoroid stream.
The last major Leonid activity was observed in 1966. According to Bob
Hillenbrand of Ames' Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy project
office, who observed the activity on that occasion, "meteors fell like
leaves from a tree in a storm." Observers in Indiana estimated that
up to 200,000 meteors were falling per hour at the height of that storm.
Estimates from Hawaiian observers ran as high as 400,000 meteors per hour,
said the NASA Ames' employee newspaper, The Astrogram's March 22, 1996,
edition.
Other scientists have said they believe those figures are inflated.
With all meteor showers, although they peak at a given time, the number
of shooting stars coming from that particular part of the sky is at an increased
level for at least several days before and several days after the main event.
Those seeking the best look at the event, according to the International
Meteor Organization, must journey to Mongolia or northeastern China. Observers
there will see up to 10,000 an hour; those in Japan, 1,000; and those in
Europe, 100 an hour. Bad news for Americans, who can hope for only 10 to
20 per hour on the peak day.
Better news is that the "off period" for viewers at other points
on the globe will be the best for us, with more than 20 per hour expected
in the U.S. in the predawn hours the days before and after Tuesday. The
rate could hit as high as 40 to 50 per hour before dawn Wednesday. Sky &Telescope
Magazine calls it a "celestial lottery with a potential huge payoff."
The Aerospace Corporation's Web site says the best viewing for any time
zone will be at 2 a.m. (observer's local time) Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Observers should focus on the darkest part of the sky, at least 50 degrees
up from the eastern horizon.
According to Washington University of St. Louis, "To best observe
the Leonids wear appropriate clothing for the weather. Lie outside in a
reclining lawn chair with your feet pointing towards the east (the general
direction of the radiant). Do not look directly at the radiant (the constellation
Leo,) but at the area above and around it. The Leonids can be observed into
morning twilight."
Although sky watchers worldwide might be looking forward to a striking
display of celestial beauty, those in the defense, weather and telecommunications
industries likely aren't so happy with the storm's prospects. The bits of
space rock, pebbles, grit and dust will hurtle toward humankind's orbiting
space equipment.
"The world's space agencies are nervously awaiting possible strikes
to the more than 500 working satellites currently in Earth orbit. Many spacecraft,
including the Hubble Space Telescope, will be carefully turned during the
Leonid shower to present their least vulnerable profiles to the potential
sandblasting," says Sky & Telescope.
In testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Space and Technology
Subcommittee this year, scientists said this meteoroid storm will be the
largest such threat ever experienced by critical orbiting satellite constellations.
Furthermore, because of the high speed of the particles - they will be moving
at over 155,000 mph - the storm poses an even greater and somewhat unknown
threat.
"Fortunately, most of the particles in the comet's trail are very
small - smaller than the diameter of a human hair - and won't survive passage
through the Earth's atmosphere," a summary of that testimony states.
"Our satellites however, are not protected by the atmosphere, so they
will be "sand blasted" by very small particles traveling more
than 100 times faster than a bullet.
"At these speeds, even a tiny particle can cause damage or electrical
problems. While major holes and physical damage to solar panels and structures
are very unlikely, impacts of small particles will create an electrically
charged plasma which can induce electrical shorts and failures in sensitive
electronic components."
No one seems to know what effect this sandblasting will have on pagers,
television reception and other satellite-based technology here on the earth's
surface. So we might be able to watch the best Leonid shower in decades
live by computer via satellite transmission. Or the shower might knock out
much of the communication on the planet, at least for a time on Tuesday. | 
Although they disagree about
most everything else in advance of this meteor storm, scientists have agreed
on the best way to observe and measure Leonid '98: aboard two aircraft outfitted
with the latest and highest technology available. Two aircraft flying within
250 feet of each other will give scientists the ability to construct 3-D
images. Called the Meteor Outburst Airborne Mission, these scientists will
be able to pick the perfect time and fly above any atmospheric or weather
barriers to perfect viewing conditions.